When will the Western financial crisis be over?

This secular boom market cycle for the commodities will last at least 20 years. So let's be patient OK! And try to survive the coming wars. See Chart #1, The commodity cycle and the imperial wars.


Here is a what I believe will happen:

• The USA, UK and the rest of the warmonger western monarchies HAVE NOT GONE YET INTO THE BIG RECESSION AND DEPRESSION that is expected in each of them. Or did you just forget that the USA, Spain, UK, France, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Holland HAVE THE MOST NEGATIVE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE? These countries keep printing money out thin air, they keep selling their gold to pay debt, they keep devaluating their currencies to prolong the final dead of the dollar, they keep the NATO war machine alive and bleeding their taxpayer to death with inflation, unemployment, economic stagnation, no growth! ONLY GERMANY SO FAR IS ESCAPING THIS GLOOMY PICTURE and they better keep working with Mother Russia or else they will implode like the others! See Tables #1 and #2, CIA Factbook "Highest and Lowest Current Account Balances".

At the top are:

At the bottom are:

• Only after these countries go through the coming deep recessions and/or depression periods THE BANKERS WILL START SORTING OUT THE MESS BETWEEN THEMSELVES. For instance, during the last depression 1929/1930 the USA lost TWO THIRD OF ITS BANKS; however, MOST OF THEM DID NOT GO BELLY UP UNTIL 1932 i.e. almost two year after the market crushed! So we ain’t see nothing yet!
• To get an idea of timing: Recessions by definition are TWO CONSECUTIVES QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GDP that means we will know WHEN THE RECESSION TOOK PLACE but not before it happens; GDP and recessions are lagging indicators or after the fact. So the USA GDP last quarter 4Q07 was +0.4% and knowing the data manipulation, we can be sure that the USA ENTERED INTO RECESSION LAST QUARTER. This quarter GDP 1Q08 is going to be even worst and therefore by the summer USA PEOPLE WILL BE OFFICIALLY NOTIFIED THEY ARE 'PROBABLY' IN RECESSION! Then the shit will hit the media fun; they will recover a bit with a typical dead cat bounce that will be highly promoted by CNN et al. Then by 2009 and 2010 will arrive the real shit in such amount that everyone will get a fair portion.
• The above timing can be linked to today’s Lehman announcement that UK may go into recession within two years! Spanish people are already selling their jewelries for food, Italy is not much better and so on. The other reason why 2009 and 2010 are the years to watch is because by then THE SUBPRIME RENEWAL AND DEFAULT WILL BE OVER. But in this process house price will decline further THUS MAKING CURRENT PRIME MORTGAGE AND AAA OR RISK FREE INVESTMENT JUNK INVESTMENT as the equity on the properties will BECOME SMALLER THAN THE MORTGAGE AT HIGHER INTEREST! See Chart #2, "Equity versus Mortgage debt reversal"

• The year 2010 will be the beginning for USA TREASURY BONDS and European sovereign bond to go down gradually from AAA rate to JUST JUNK BOND BY 2015! This means by 2015 the PRIME INTEREST RATE in USA and Europe will have to be at least around 10% to 15% and mortgages at least another 3% for the FINANCIAL RISK (spread) in declining economies!
• GOLD PRICE WILL BE OVER $ 3000, OIL OVER $ 200 AND SILVER OVER $50. By then the USA dollar may be still around. If it does, the US dollar index will be BELOW 35 or 50% of its current value! THIS IS CALLED INFLATION! See Chart 3, "Is silver price too expensive?"



• US dollar peg currencies will be leaving the USA dollar to sink alone. For instance, Kuwait already is no longer using a dollar-pegged currency AND SO FAR THEY ARE MAKING OVER 7% BETTER than the other Arab states. One more Arab state wanted to jump but THEY RECEIVED A VISIT FROM THE USA AMBASSADOR 'ADVISING' NOT TO DO IT!
• Brazil and Argentine decided last week NOT TO TRADE BETWEEN THEMSELVES IN US DOLLARS; Iran and Japan are trading oil in YEN so they are going up too! In other words, AS THE WESTERN EMPIRES WARMONGER MACHINE GET BUSTED AND KICKED OUT, the international trade and the OIL WILL BE TRADED IN ANY CURRENCY BUT DOLLARS and the USA may have to pay in other currencies, SILVER, OR GOLD OR OTHER TANGIBLE ASSETS!
• This will be the end of the fiat currencies or paper money system. It will be the end of the western financial scams stealing REAL ASSETS AROUND THE WORLD FOR USELESS PAPERS AS AN INVESTMENT! WHAT WILL REPLACE ALL THIS HUGE PILE OF SHIT OF PAPERS OR COMPUTER ENTRIES? SILVER AND/OR GOLD STANDARDS!

In summary, we are at 10% to 15% of the beginning of the financial crisis!

If you do not believe me, CUT AND PASTE FOR FUTURE REFERENCES!

CHEERS FROM CANADA - PEACE PEACE

Courtesy of CANUKISTAN_VIEW